Chinese property transaction data is pretty volatile, thus when we hear about the month-to-month numbers things can get confusing.
Yet what’s clear is that despite efforts to clamp down on the property market in China, transaction volumes have continued trend higher, if we compare the current level with pre-crisis levels during 2008:
Goldman’s Joshua Lu:
Latest housing data up to the second week of Oct observed volume increase (median +44%, versus -25% for the first week of Oct), with prices flat (median 0% versus -1% for the first week of Oct) on a wow basis. Overall, sale momentum held up well in September, and Oct is off to a good start.
Thus the chart above is a nice dose of perspective, and it looks as though efforts in 2010 to cool the market have merely caused transaction volumes to plateau, at best, rather than fall below 2008 levels.
(Via Goldman, China:Retail, Joshua Lu, 28 October 2010)