Not that we want to take away anyone’s Kool-Aid, but it is worthwhile to puncture some of that ISM afterglow, if possible.
We noted yesterday that little up-moves and down-moves are common within bigger trends, and so one month doesn’t tell the whole story.
That we saw on this chart from Calculated Risk:
Photo: Calculated Risk
But here’s a better reason to be sceptical. If you look under the hood, the production number did not jump.
PragCap has the chart breaking it out. The blue line is still above 50, which still means growth.
But when you combine this with the regional Fed surveys, there’s a bit less to cheer about.
Photo: The Pragmatic Capitalist