Tomorrow is the big Non-Farm Payrolls report AKA the jobs report.
The report is always the most closely-watched report of the month.
The tension is especially high for a few reasons.
The market remains near all-time highs, but has been weak. There are concerns about the US recovery. And there is serious talk about the Fed beginning to slow down its monetary easing in a way that we haven’t seen since the end of the financial crisis. So the stakes are even higher than normal.
In today’s Morning Money, Ben White of POLITICO notes a two inauspicious items:
JOBS DAY PREVIEW: NOT LOOKING GREAT – The ADP miss on Wednesday (135K, under 165K expectations) lowered hopes for Friday’s BLS jobs report. Harris Private Bank’s Jack Ablin: “While the job market, like many other segments of the economy, continues to expand, it appears to be growing at a slowing rate. … Based on a cozy historical relationship between ADP and the Bureau of labour Statistics’ private payrolls, a simple regression would imply a disappointing net gain of only 139,000 jobs.”
ISM NUMBER MAKES IT LOOK WORSE – Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson: “The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 53.7 from 53.1, trivial- ly above the consensus, 53.5. … But we are less interested in the headline than the grim employment index, which dropped to 10-month low of 50.1 from 52.0 in April. If sustained at that level, the index is consistent with private payroll growth of only about 25K per month.”
Anyway, there’s lots of noise with this stuff, but so far the data we’ve seen this week has made folks a bit more pessimistic than they were whne the week started.
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