Is This Taiwanese Export Data The Canary In The Coalmine For China?

An interesting datapoint from Taiwan.

Here’s Waverly Advisors:

Taiwanese export orders for January, released last night, registered a sequential decline in growth to 13.5% Y/Y versus consensus forecasts ranging from 17.9% to 18.5%. While currency appreciation is largely responsible for this softening expansion, the declining mix of consumer electronics (see chart above) and declining portion of orders accounted for by China and Hong Kong ( 7.22% Y/Y vs. 17.63% in December) both suggest that wholesale buyers on the mainland may be anticipating softening retail demand near-term as inflationary concerns and corresponding cooling measures are factored.


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