Is The Market Finally Starting To Line Up For The Bulls?

Yes, says BTIG’s Mike O’Rourke, who presents the following:

A couple of factors have broken in favour of the bulls over the past couple of sessions.  Risk spreads have settled down.  AAII Sentiment at 37% bullish has become its most pessimistic since early November and is under the buy threshold of 40% (see chart).  Coincidently, this week the S&P 500 hit those same levels that it hit in early November.  Although the Euro has been testing its lows, it has not registered a new low in 6 days.  The monthly underperformance of Equities relative to Treasuries this month has been the worst since late 2008.  These factors combined with the absence of disasters in Europe enabled the strong session today.  It will be key to see if tomorrow allows upside follow through.  There is upside resistance at both 1115 and 1135 and 1080 has carved itself out as downside support.

The only thing we’ll say is that this is fairly thin gruel here. Taking heart in bearishness is a bit hard to stomach, considering how good the market did when everyone was bullish. The tightening of risk spreads and the failure of the euro to make new lows is good… but hard to imagine anyone getting too ra-ra about these things, unless they continue for a while.

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Photo: BTIG

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