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Here’s an interesting paragraph from Nomura’s Americas Morning Comment today…Assuming no shock announcements from Greece (where opinion polls are looking more constructive from a market perspective) or elsewhere, investors who made the right call this week may well looking to book some profits today, especially given the G8 meeting at Camp David this weekend. The chances of something coming out of this that really changes the big picture seems unlikely to us, but we expect supportive noises to be made and it should help the profit-taking vibe which may be settling in. If that does lead to a more meaningful retracement of moves over the course of today or Monday, then there could be an opportunity to set further risk shorts or bond longs, we think.
Indeed, momentum for the left-wing SYRIZA party — which would be in sharp conflict with the rest of Europe on how to proceed — may be stalling out. A couple of new polls have the conservative New Democracy party leading, and a report in Ekathimerini suggests that New Democracy is shoring up its coalition.
The Greeks want change, but they don’t want to leave the Euro, and if it looks like SYRIZA’s leader Alexis Tsipras is overplaying his hand, and risking a GREXIT, then he may get punished.
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