Is A Dollar Rally About To Kill Risk Assets?

Now here’s a winning stat for you.  Based on the net speculative positions in the USD there is a 100% chance (based on past occurrences) that the dollar will rally from here.  According to a report today from Credit Suisse the US dollar has rallied 100% of the time from these levels on a 3 month basis.  On a 1, 2 and 6 month basis it has rallied 80% of the time:


QE has been fully priced into the dollar and then some.  I believe the decline in the dollar has contributed substantially to the rally in risk assets in recent weeks.  If we see a reversion towards a more disinflationary outlook the dollar will serve as a substantial impediment to equities and commodities.

Source: Credit Suisse


This post previously appeared at Calculated Risk >

NOW WATCH: Money & Markets videos

Want to read a more in-depth view on the trends influencing Australian business and the global economy? BI / Research is designed to help executives and industry leaders understand the major challenges and opportunities for industry, technology, strategy and the economy in the future. Sign up for free at

Tagged In

dollar moneygame-us