Here Are The Banks That Will Get Whacked In An Ireland Collapse

German banks are “uneasy” over the current Irish crisis, and their rivals in other countries are concerned too.

Der Spiegel reports that the exposure of Germany’s banks amounts to $138 billion, with Hypo Real Estate leading the way with €10.3 billion in debt.

British banks are also exposed to the crisis, holding $150 billion in Irish debt.

Morgan Stanley (via hedgeanalyst) were a bit more specific on potential problem banks in a report last week. They suggested Danske, KBC, Lloyds, and RBS had something to be concerned about in the Irish situation.

  • Danske Bank: 3% of the bank’s total credit exposure, with only 3% as government debt, and 41% as mortgages.
  • KBC: An emphasis on mortgages, with €17.8 billion in loans, and only 15% at risk.
  • Lloyds: £21.7 billion in loans, £11.7 billion in impaired loans.
  • RBS: “Significant” exposure, according to Morgan Stanley, including £51.9 billion in loans.

Morgan Stanley mapped out some scenarios for future losses. It looks like Lloyds has the most to lose from the bear case, which includes significant increases in non-performing loans.


Photo: Morgan Stanley

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