Britons will vote on whether the country should leave the European Union in exactly five weeks.
Ipsos MORI’s latest EU referendum survey for the Evening Standard has given a massive 18-point lead to Remain with just over a month go to — its biggest lead for three months.
According to the poll published on Wednesday, 55% of respondents said they intended to vote for Britain to remain in the EU, compared to just 37% who plan to back a Brexit.
The survey is also the third phone poll published this week to give a big lead to the Remain campaign.
On Monday, The Guardian’s latest phone poll conducted by ICM showed an eight-point lead for Remain, while the results of ORB phone survey gave Remain a whopping 15-point lead.
This was despite a pair of online polls released on the very same day which said that Leave was in the lead. These were ICM’s survey which gave Leave a four-point winning margin, and TNS which said the campaign for a Brexit was winning by three points.
This means that there is a clear relationship emerging between the mode pollsters use to gather data and the nature of the results: Phone polls give comfortable leads to Remain, while online there is a much closer contest and in some cases a Brexit was the more popular option.
The wild differences between the polls have made this referendum a very unpredictable political event. The latest What UK Thinks Poll of Polls — based on the six surveys released over the last ten days — shows a four-point lead for Remain. This follows weeks of the two campaigns being neck and neck.
Business Insider spoke to polling analyst Matt Singh on Monday, who said that given the variety of results being produced by polling firms at the moment, some of them are set to get their final forecasts very wrong.
Sing’s warning echoed the concerns of former YouGov President Peter Kellner, who told an event BI attended last week: “I am not at all confident that the final average poll will be within 2-3 points of the final poll.”
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