Apple is stifling the iPhone’s share of the mobile market by selling it through so few carriers. And when it eventually starts selling the iPhone at more carriers per country, its market share could more than double, Morgan Stanley’s Kathryn Huberty predicts in a note today. This could drive Apple sales and profits upward.
Bonus slideshow: 10 iPhone Apps Microsoft Must Make
“In the top six iPhone markets that are still exclusive, we believe that Apple’s market share could rise to 10%, on average, in a multiple carrier distribution model from 4% today. These six markets represented almost 70% per cent of iPhone shipments in C2Q09.”
For example, if Apple were to sell the iPhone at more U.S. carriers, such as Verizon, she estimates its share of the U.S. market could more than double to 12.2%, up from 4.9% today.
Next year, she sees potential upside of 7.3 million unit sales, for example, as Apple sells the iPhone at more European carriers and enters China and Korea.
As a result, she raised her calendar 2010 revenue and adjusted EPS estimates to $45.3 billion/$10.50 from $44.8 billion/$10.00, as she now expects 41.7 milion iPhone shipments, up from 38.2 million.