Verizon Could Grab 23% Of AT&T's iPhone Users If Apple Ends Exclusivity

CS report

Photo: Credit Suisse

A new survey from Credit Suisse says 63% of iPhone owners will stick with AT&T, even if it loses the exclusive right to sell the phone.Where would AT&T iPhone owners go if given the chance? 23% will join Verizon, while 3% will go to Sprint, and 2% will go to T-Mobile.

While it might sound scary to think about AT&T possibly losing 37% of its iPhone users, Credit Suisse is bullish on AT&T, raising its price target on the telecom to $35, up from $27.

The investment bank says the damage of losing the iPhone is being overblown, making AT&T cheap. Also, AT&T will deliver strong earnings, a good dividend, and stock repurchases.

AT&T will have 18 million iPhone owners after almost 4 years of exclusivity.

Here's the iPhone's penetration into AT&T's base.

63% of iPhone owners say they won't leave.

Here's a more in-depth breakdown of the survey results.

Credit Suisse looks at when contracts end. Most iPhone owners are under contract, so it's hard to trust what they say about switching.

Only 3% of subscribers are willing to break their contract.

Verizon grabs 1.4 million subscribers, estimates Credit Suisse

Most will jump in the first half

8.1 million Verizon users are waiting to buy an iPhone, says Credit Suisse.

If the iPhone hits in 2011, the pent up demand at Verizon should be taken care of in the first year.

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