The news from the three battleground, swing-state NBC-Marist polls out this morning is not that President Obama and Mitt Romney are in a “dead heat” in the three states.
It’s that they are in a “dead heat” suddenly in areas that, until now, were leaning heavily toward Obama.
The new NBC-Marist polls give Obama a one-point lead in Colorado and a two-point lead in Nevada. In Iowa, the two candidates are tied, while a full 10 per cent of the electorate is undecided at this point.
For Obama, the Nevada numbers are the biggest disaster. For all of its talk as a swing state, it has been trending toward Obama comfortably all year. In the last four polls there, Obama was up six, six, eight and eight points. The last two, in April, provided the eight-point leads. Meanwhile, only 46 per cent approve of the job he is doing as president.
Then there’s Iowa. Small sampling overall, but in the only other reliable polling there recently, Public Policy Polling found Obama building a huge lead to 10 points. And that poll actually surveyed 1 per cent more Republicans than Democrats. Here, we have the same 1 per cent lean toward Republicans, but very different results.
Now, there’s an even 41-41 split between Obama and Romney. Only 46 per cent approve of the job Obama is doing now, compared with 49 per cent in the PPP poll. Meanwhile, an astounding 34 per cent said they would be more likely to vote for Romney because he opposes gay marriage. Only 22 per cent said the same for Obama because of his recent endorsement.
Finally, there’s Colorado, which had been more of an expected swing state. Obama has fallen drastically there since April, when PPP found a 13-point lead for him. In April, he hit the magic 50-per cent approval rating threshold. Now, it’s down to 45 per cent, while 49 per cent disapprove. This Colorado poll, however, did sample 4 per cent more Republicans than Democrats.
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