Iowa Is A Terrible Predictor Of Who Will Win The Republican Primary

Mitt Romney eked out a minuscule eight-vote win in Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses. But as history shows, the caucuses aren’t a very reliable way to judge who will emerge as the ultimate Republican nominee.

Since 1976 —the first year Iowa held the leading event in the Republican nominating process —only half of the candidates who won the Hawkeye State captured the GOP nomination, a record of three out of six tries. That includes 1976 when Gerald Ford, then technically the incumbent president, held off a challenge from Ronald Reagan.


iowa caucus winners and how they fared overall
Jon Terbush / Business Insider