“Today’s jobless claims report is the most important release in what is a quiet week for U.S. data,” says High Frequency Economics’ Jim O’Sullivan. “While weekly readings can be erratic, the claims series remains a key momentum indicator for the labour market.”
The Department of labour will publish its latest initial jobless claims report at 8:30 AM ET today. Economists are looking for a reading of 335,000, up from 324,000 last week.
Here’s some insight on claims from O’Sullivan’s latest note:
In theory, net employment growth can weaken significantly without an uptrend in claims — if the slowing is due entirely to reduced hiring rather than increased firing. But it never works like that in practice. Significant weakening in the trend in employment growth is invariably reflected by an uptrend in claims. That is the point of our all-time favourite chart, which lines up the level of claims with the rate of change in payrolls.
High Frequency Economics