Don't Get Too Excited About Today's Awesome Jobless Claims Report

Initial jobless claims plunged to 326,000 this week, the lowest level since early 2008. 

And this was much lower than the 345,000 expected by economists.

The weekly claims report by nature is already quite volatile.

But today’s report should be taken with particular caution.

Here’s TD Securities Gennadiy Goldberg (emphasis added):

…While the labour Department noted no special factors influencing the claims data, they did cite ‘typical July volatility’ as the basis for the stronger claims reading. Unadjusted claims tend to perform quite positively during this time of the year, leading to less supportive seasonal adjustment factors. The latest week’s unadjusted claims fell by a very large 60K, taking the unadjusted reading 19K lower. We suggest taking the latest reading with a grain of salt as the labour Department may be having some trouble seasonally adjusting the data.

Maybe a couple weeks down the road we’ll get a better sense of where claims really are.

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