A Critical Jobs Number Is Coming Up Tomorrow

Tomorrow we get the latest instalment of weekly initial jobless claims.

This number has been elevated lately, and a rising level of claims portends bad news for the economy and the stock market.

Here’s how things look since the beginning of 2011.


However, it’s not 100% clear that things are getting worse. As Nomura points out, there was a similar blip up last year around this time, so it could be a seasonality thing.

One way to defend Nomura’s claim is by looking at the YOY improvement claims. It turns out, things haven’t gotten much worse by that measure.


So this is what we’ll be watching. Is the rate of annual improvement staying roughly in line. If so, that’s good. If we get a weakening, and it looks like our annual gains are dissipating, then that’s a bad sign.

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