Due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the initial jobless claims report will be coming out today, not Thursday.
Last week’s number surged to 439k due to Hurricane Sandy.
And according to TD Securities Eric Green, Sandy is likely to linger in the numbers for another two weeks. From his latest note:
Claims surged to 439k last week, a gain of 78k owing exclusively to the Hurricane Sandy effect that will begin to abate in the November 17th week due out today. Claims around 400k looks reasonable, consensus at 410k feels a bit high, but we have a strong suspicion the number will remain comfortably above the 4wk moving average of 372k prior to the Hurricane. Relative to prior weather events (see chart below), the weather effect last week was much larger than usual which testifies to the large geographical scope and damage along the heavily populated East Coast. It will take another two weeks before claims revisit the 370-380k area, but that is where it is headed so fade this number for now.
Photo: TD Securities
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