Initial jobless claims in the US are grinding lower week after week. Earlier we called this the most bullish trend in the economy right now.
Not only are claims falling nicely, we’re starting to get into really impressive territory, especially when you adjust for the size of the population and total workforce, as suggested to us by Twitter user Fullcary.
Here is initial claims adjusted for population. As you can see, we’re at levels that are better than at any point throughout much of the 70s and 80s.
But what if this is just a function of the declining workforce participation rate?
Turns out it’s not.
Here’s initial claims adjusted for the civilian labour population. Basically the same deal.
The only times we’ve gotten much better than the current level were the .com bubble and the peak of the housing bubble.
This might be as good as it gets.