By a slim majority, some 51.9% of those who participated, voters in the United Kingdom have opted to leave the European Union.
Perhaps caught up in the extreme volatility that gripped financial markets in recent days, some have mistakenly formed the view that the UK has now actually left the EU.
The UK is out. Kaput. Show over.
Well, it isn’t, yet. The UK parliament still has to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, something that once requested would take up to two years to see the UK leave the EU.
Conditions of the exit need to be negotiated. Given the complexity of leaving the EU, particularly as its the first time a member state has made such a request, it’s unlikely to be easy, nor especially palatable for either party involved
Based on the views offered by David Cameron and other members of the European Council in recent days, it could be some time yet before Article 50 is even triggered.
It now looks like it’ll be months, not weeks or days.
Some have even speculated that Article 50 may never be invoked. Dream the dream, say those in the Remain camp.
Citi research’s political analyst team, led by Tina Fordham, have created this simple but effective infographic to help explain how a Brexit may be avoided.
To be clear, Citi is not suggesting that this will occur, just how it MAY occur. The title of the infographic, “8 Fantasies to avoid a Brexit”, provides some indication as to the likelihood of such an outcome occurring.
As you can see, none seem particularly plausible, particularly given the vote occurred less than a week ago.
Some even involve ignoring the majority of the voting populace. Good luck with that.
While there is plenty of water to flow under the bridge, allowing time for surprises, at this point if there’s a favourite to avoid a Brexit, it’s looking most likely to be the eighth option, found in the bottom right corner.
As the saying goes, dreams do come true.