Calculated Risk’s take on this morning’s industrial production and capacity utilization data: A relatively shallow recession…so far:
The decline in capacity utilization suggests that the economy could be in recession. Even more important is that industrial production is a key to the depth of the economic slowdown. So far exports have been strong, and the decline in industrial production has been mild. If the global economy slows significantly (“recoupling”), then industrial production and capacity utilization could fall sharply leading to a deeper recession.
Graph courtesy of Calculated Risk