Standard Chartered On The Demographic Crisis That Could Create A Disaster In India

India’s burgeoning population has been touted as basis for the country’s growth story. Nearly half of its 1.25 billion people are under the age of 25 and by 2030 the country’s median age will be 31, much lower than China’s 42 and Japan’s 52, according to a report by Standard Chartered.

But without massive job creation, India’s demographic resource could become a huge, and potentially disastrous, burden.

From the Standard Chartered report:

There is a need for continued improvement in education, health care and skills as India provides the sizeable educated labour force needed for its private sector to grow. India’s population is rising, and over the next 20 years the working-age population should increase by over 200mn. With half its huge population under 25, India has a demographic dividend – but only if it delivers the policies and economic growth needed… If jobs are not created, the demographic dividend could become a disaster.

Here are some key trends in India’s population, according to the report:

  • India’s population is growing against slowing world population and by 2030, its set to become the world’s most populous country. 
  • The boom will in the working-age group i.e. between 15 – 59 years and will contribute up to 75 – 80% of the increase in India’s population.

  • A declining birth rate in the decade between 2020 and 2030 would mean a larger female workforce. Currently 80% of India’s women between the ages of 15 and 59 are reportedly not in the labour force.
  • India’s least developed states account for the largest population increases. More than 73% of India’s population resides in rural regions.

India is working to boost manufacturing to represent 25% of its economy in the next 10 years from 16% right now, according to the report.

Note India’s significant reliance on the agricultural industry, from Standard Chartered:

india employment profile

[credit provider=”Standard Chartered”]

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