Today’s first Gallup daily presidential tracking poll wasn’t an aberration. Lately, the Independent vote has either shifted to Mitt Romney over Barack Obama or provided Romney with a lot more hope to gain the Independent vote in November.Independents will decide the election.
First, we have the Gallup poll, which showed that 45 per cent of Independent voters prefer Romney to just 39 per cent for Obama. That gives Romney an overall lead within the margin of error at 47 per cent to 45 per cent.
The Fox News poll released last week also does not bode well for Obama. In that poll, Obama is also losing among Independent voters by a healthy six-point margin — 43 per cent to 37 per cent.
Then there is the general feeling among Independents that they are closer in ideology to Mitt Romney, a survey performed by the Democratic think tank Third Way found. The survey of so-called “swing Independents” — about 40 per cent of Independents who will legitimately “swing” between parties in different elections — showed that they would vote for Obama today (44 per cent to 38 per cent).
But that compares to a whopping 57 per cent of those “swing Independents” who voted for Obama in 2008 against John McCain. And their self-described ratings of their ideologies put them closer to Romney than Obama.
FINALLY. The two most important issues for Independents in the 2012 Election are the economy and the ballooning federal deficit. And on these two issues, voters in general trust Mitt Romney more than they do Barack Obama, as multiple polls have shown.
Some key analysis from Scott Rasmussen on the topic:
Economic concerns dominate the voters’ agenda, and here the numbers for the president are more troubling. 40-nine per cent of the nation’s voters trust Romney more than the president when it comes to the economy. Just 39 per cent trust Obama more.
That double-digit advantage for Romney is consistent with other data showing a general lack of confidence in the president’s economic policies. Only 37 per cent give him positive reviews for his handling of the economy so far.
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