The death toll from
Typhoon Haiyan which hit the Philippines on Fridayis believed to have reached 10,000, according to one provincial government.
9.5 million people, about one-tenth of the population, has been affected by the disaster.
And the storm that has taken a human toll will also hurt the economy in the short term.
But in the long run, GDP growth should recover significantly boosted by reconstruction efforts, writes Daniel Martin of Capital Economics.
The government’s in strong fiscal situation will help fund spending and Filipinos working overseas will likely send more money home to help relatives.
A look back at the impact of natural disasters in recent years suggests the “impact on GDP has been short-lived and small.”
This typhoon missed the country’s main commercial and industrial centres.
The region that was impacted accounts for 18% of GDP and is more agricultural. Rice and sugar plantations were destroyed.
“Damage to crops is likely to push up food prices over the coming months but, again, previous experiences suggest the effects will unwind quickly,” said Martin.
Of course, “looking at GDP alone can under-represent the negative impact of disasters and exaggerate the recovery.” Over time we will also have to consider the impact on population growth and consider whether more Filipinos emigrate.