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Slowing Chinese consumer spending could hurt Macau. VIP-gaming which accounts for a large part of Macau’s gaming revenues is likely to take a hit if Chinese high-end spending slows. Deutsche Bank analyst Karen Tang says:
While not our base case, if EU/US goes into a recession and China GDP drops to 7.9%, Macau’s growth may fall from YTD run-rate of 45% to 10-20%.
It has been suspected that a 31% – 33% year-one-year growth in ‘mass’ revenue (as opposed to VIP revenues) since Q4 1999, and a recent acceleration to 43% in June and July this year has clouded the outlook.
Tang argues while some of this growth is structural, part of it is seasonal as mainland Chinese travel to Macau for their summer holidays. When this subsides come October Macau’s growth could disappoint.
The VIP segment is credit-induced and depends on wealth creation, propensity to spend/gamble and the availability of credit. With luxury car, gold and jewelry sales easing in China, Tang expects a similar impact on gaming in Macau.