Eurogroup president Jean-Claude Juncker just said that the IMF may not give Greece the next tranche of its bailout funds next month, according to Bloomberg.Juncker says that, according to IMF rules, refinancing guarantees must be in place for 12 months. That means the IMF needs to be convinced that Greece can rollover its debt for the next 12 months without any problems
If it isn’t convinced, then it won’t shell out the cash. We should know the IMF’s decision by early next week, according to Juncker.
And Juncker says the “troika,” or ECB, IMF, and EU, won’t be convinced that this is “a given.” Juncker says the IMF expects the EU to step in and bail Greece out if they don’t (via Neil Hume).
In that scenario, the EFSF, or European Financial Stability Fund, will be tapped for more cash. That’s unlikely to go over well in countries like Germany and Finland, where people are already upset over the costs of the bailouts. Political opposition from EU members states could mean the end of bailout cash for Greece.
Greek CDS is now wider, by 45 bps, according to Markit’s Gavan Nolan. The euro has moved sharply lower on the news. Stocks have also moved lower on the news.