IDC: Windows Phone Is Going To Be Big In 2016, We Swear

steve ballmerMicrosoft CEO Steve Ballmer

Photo: AP

IDC has a new report predicting Windows Phone makes big smartphone market share gains.

In 2016.

According to the report, Windows will be at 11.4 per cent of the market in four years. Apple, meanwhile, will pick up 0.3 per cent to reach 19.1 per cent in the next four years. Android will fall from 68.3 per cent to 63.8 per cent, according to IDC.

Maybe IDC is right and these exact numbers and trends will play out over the next four years.

More likely, IDC is wrong, and this will not happen.

We don’t want to pick on IDC, because making predictions is tough. Especially four years out. (Heck, some of us get our predictions wrong when they’re just a few months away.)

But, IDC is a big, respected organisation so people are going to talk about this prediction.

Here’s why you can safely ignore it: Last year IDC said Windows Phone was going to beat iOS in 2015 and take 20.9 per cent of the market.

So, in one year’s time it’s already changed its mind! What will IDC predict next year? Who knows!

There’s another reason you can ignore this prediction: Technology changes quickly. By 2016 we could all be hooked up to Google Glasses (not likely) or Apple could be making a cheap iPhone that’s sold around the world (more likely).

Not to mention, no one has bought Windows Phone phones for the last three years. What’s going to change in the next four years?

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