Next year will be Microsoft’s “year of reckoning” in mobile, says IDC in a report with big predictions for 2013.IDC thinks Microsoft’s mobile efforts are toast if it doesn’t hit a critical milestone.
IDC polls thousands of developers each quarter, and only 33% of them say they will develop for Windows Phone. If that doesn’t hit 50% next year, then Microsoft’s mobile software is toast, says IDC.
If this isn’t the most convoluted thing we’ve ever heard, we don’t know what is.
We understand the general premise behind IDC’s thinking: Microsoft needs developers to build great apps to get consumers. But there’s no reason to use arbitrary metrics. Just look at Microsoft’s market share. If it goes up, Microsoft is ok.
Besides, if you really want to know when Microsoft had a year of reckoning in mobile, try 2008. That’s the year the iPhone 3G came out. People rendered their judgment on Microsoft’s mobile platform pretty clearly that year and went to the iPhone.
Or, if 2008 doesn’t work for you, try 2011. That’s the year after Windows Phone 7 came out. And it was ignored.
We suppose 2013 will be another year of reckoning since Windows Phone 8 will have been out for a year. And Nokia and HTC will be selling really good Windows Phones.
The point is, Microsoft has had its years of reckoning in mobile. And it has not done well in those years.
Yet, here it is, plugging away. Microsoft isn’t going to give up on mobile. That would be the same as giving up, period.
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