This poll confirms that Britain will leave the EU unless Cameron stops the free movement of people

A poll from ICM has asked British voters for the first time how their voting intention for the EU referendum would change if British Prime Minister David Cameron fails in his effort to restrict the free movement of people in his renegotiation of Britains EU membership. ICM polled 2,053 people over the weekend, asking them first whether the United Kingdom should leave the EU.

42% of people said they wanted to remain and 41% said they wanted to leave. If you excluded the people who don’t know, that make it an even 50-50 split between people wanting to leave and people wanting to stay.

However, when the same people were asked how they would vote if David Cameron failed in his attempt to restrict the free movement of people within the EU, 40% said they would vote to remain in the EU and 45% would vote to leave. If you remove the people who don’t know, that works out as 47% who would want to remain and 53% who would want to leave.

Cameron is currently trying to renegotiate Britain’s position within the EU. In a letter he sent to European Council president Donald Tusk, he said that Britain needs to be able to exert greater control on the arrival of immigrants from inside the EU. He is struggling, however, to win over support for his plans from other European leaders such as Polish prime minister Beata Szydlo who said last week that she and Cameron do not see “eye to eye.”

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