Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, is looking for a huge payrolls number on Friday.
Shepherdson is forecasting nonfarm payrolls grew by 280,000 in March, the most bullish forecast among Wall Street economists. (Wall Street consensus is for payroll gains of 245,000, according to data from Bloomberg.)
In making his forecast, Shepherdson took into account two main factors: the underlying trend and seasonal adjustments.
Shepherdson notes that in February, the 3- and 6-month moving averages of payroll gains stood at 288,000 and 293,000 respectively.
“The survey suggests we should look for March private payrolls to rise by about 290K, with even faster gains in prospect in the spring. Adding in about 10K for the trend in government jobs, and an initial take on March points to about 300K,” Shepherdson wrote.
But there are still the seasonal adjustments.
Shepherdson notes that in March, seasonal adjustments are unlikely to play a big role — the average forward adjustment for March payrolls is just 17,000 — but any adjustment that is made is likely to be higher.
Here’s Shepherdson: “Assuming steady seasonals and no weather effects, this is the only adjustment we’re making to our trend-estimate, so we’re looking for 280K [on Friday].”
You can read out full preview here, and we will be LIVE with complete coverage of the numbers when they drop.
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