Ian Bremmer, geopolitical analyst and president of the Eurasia Group, explains why he doesn’t think a Trump impeachment is likely. Following is a transcript of the video.
I’d be very surprised if Trump was impeached. For me, this scandal looks much more like Iran-Contra than it does Watergate. And I certainly think that’s true with the Republican House and Senate. So in the run-up to 2018, if after midterm elections the Democrats were to actually sweep, then we’d be in a different environment. It becomes politicized in a direction that’s much more problematic for Trump and if there are smoking guns that become known to the public through the investigation process, then he might be more vulnerable. But impeachment’s a very high bar, it’s a political bar. There’s nothing that I’ve seen so far remotely that implies that Trump has done something that would hit that bar. We don’t see any notions of illegality, what we see is a lot of lying. Well, not lying under oath, just a lot of lying. More lying than the average politician, by a large margin, and that’s already a high bar.
But what you see is that the polarization in the United States is only getting greater every day. There has been weakening of Trump’s support. So the strength of committed support from his base is not as enthusiastic as it was a month, two months ago. But still the vast majority of those core supporters are very much with Trump and there’s nothing that the mainstream media can report that’s going to shake that because they have lost all trust in those institutions and those individuals. In fact I do believe that the fact that the media has basically acted like their hair’s on fire with everything that Trump does, if he colludes with the Russians or if he misspells a tweet, it’s a national security disaster. That crying wolf has really worn patience down to a nub for people that support Trump.
And so if Trump were impeached, which again I think is quite unlikely, I think it’d be very bad for the country. Bad for the country because all of his supporters would feel rightly that this guy had never been given a fair shot after they elected him president. And I’m saying that even if he absolutely deserves to be impeached. You just don’t want American institutions to be that divided, to be that corrosive, and unfortunately I think that’s where we are today.