A turbulent geopolitical environment is presenting the global economy with potential for major turmoil, warned Ian Bremmer at the Sohn Conference Foundation in New York Monday.
And, it could be on Washington to temper its expectations — and watch its temper.
Bremmer is founder and president of geopolitical analysis firm Eurasia Group — which has been busy in recent months, in part thanks to the political storm that has been brewing between Russia and Ukraine.
“Our willingness to engage on behalf of our allies is changing,” he said at the event.
But the next presidential election could change that. For almost half a century and the entire cold war, we had a geopolitical environment that was dangerous, but remained stable.
No more, he said.
ISIS is the biggest and best-financed terrorist group in the world and Russia keeps defying international mandates to de-escalate its situation in Ukraine.
President Barack Obama is less willing “than many who are running in 2016” to engage in international conflicts.
It comes at a time when our European allies are facing internal conflicts and consternation, and a likelihood of political turmoil. The economic capabilities of Middle Eastern nations — including Iran and Saudi Arabia — have weakened with the price of oil, and through years of military turmoil in individual countries. It isn’t clear oil will rebound any time soon, and geopolitics should be carefully watched by those on Wall Street making big bets on international markets.
“This unnerves them,” he said.
Bremmer is bullish for a deal with Iran to curb its nuclear ambition — and pour more oil into a market where the commodity has seen plummeting prices.
But he’s not so certain on the long-term outlook.
“And yes, they will cheat on it: they always do,” he said.