I Don't Think I've Ever Seen Something Fall 30 Sessions In A Row

Even mortgage indexes bounced in the crisis. Today, the Baltic Dry Index fell for the 30th session in a row.

  • Down 61% in January
  • The catalysts are an increase in the number of ships and lower Chinese steel output
  • Even more ships now coming online after Chinese New Year
  • Shipping returns below-cost on 16 of 24 routes.

The ebb and flow of the Baltic Dry index has been a terrible leading indicator for the past 3 years and this seems to be a shipping issue rather than an economic one. Still, it’s a spectacular collapse and it’s better to be bearish in commodity FX, especially with the spike-reversal/double-top in AUD/USD.


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