Hugh Hendry of Eclectica is one of the more articulate and closely followed hedge fund managers in the world today.
Until today, he was also one of the more bearish managers too.
“I can no longer say I am bearish,” said Hendry today according to InvestmentWeek. “When markets become parabolic, the people who exist within them are trend followers, because the guys who are qualitative have got taken out.”
Speaking at the Harrington Cooper conference, Hendry argued that an ongoing currency war between the U.S. and China will continue to force the Federal Reserve to keep monetary policy loose and easy.
“I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate,” he said. “You are well within your rights to say ‘sell’. The S&P 500 is up 30% over the past year: I wish I had thought this last year.”
Hendry sounded pretty crestfallen. Here’s more from InvestmentWeek:
“I have been prepared to underperform for the fun of being proved right when markets crash. But that could be in three-and-a-half-years’ time.”
“I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends.”
As Hendry said, he is not the first bear to “warn” that stocks are likely to go much higher from here. Here’s a round up of some recent quotes we’ve heard from the long-time bears:
John Hussman: “…we should neither expect, rely or be shocked by a further blowoff…”
Jeremy Grantham, GMO: “My personal guess is that the U.S. market, especially the non-blue chips, will work its way higher, perhaps by 20% to 30% in the next year or, more likely, two years…”
Richard Russell: “I continue to think that this bull market will end in an upside explosion.”
Bob Janjuah, Nomura: “I still see end Q4 2013, through to end Q1 2014, as the window in which we see a significant risk-on top before giving way, over the last three quarters of 2014 and through 2015, to what could be a 25% to 50% sell-off in global stock markets.”
Is there no one else?