HSBC predict that by 2050, China’s GDP will be higher than the U.S., but only by a tiny $2.3 trillion (via Ambrose Evans-Pritchard).
That $2.3 trillion difference is so tiny because by 2050, the U.S. economy will be worth $22.3 trillion (the Chinese $24.6 trillion).
The success of the U.S. is down to its high fertility rate, the basis of the report.
HSBC also assumes there won’t be any major global disturbances from war or trade conflict in the next 40 years.
Its major findings:
- China and the U.S. number 1 and 2, with a combined economy worth $46.9 trillion
- The pair’s closest rival, India, has a tiny economy in comparison of only $8.2 trillion
- The UK surges in Europe, due to its high birth rate, and nearly surpasses Germany
- Countries with low birth rates like France, Italy, Korea, and Russia slip
Something for Americans to be proud about: They’ll be three times as rich as the Chinese in 2050.