No matter who wins the US election, it will be bullish for the gold price.
So says James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC, who believes that gold will continue to rally in the year ahead, particularly should Donald Trump take the presidency.
“In addition to economic and financial events, gold is sensitive to geopolitical and even social developments,” said Steel in a research note released on Tuesday.
“This US election may be particularly important in setting the course of US economic policy and foreign policy and hence for gold prices, given the severity of the challenges facing the economy (including still-sluggish economic growth, income inequality, high debt levels and low productivity) and foreign policy entanglements and challenges.”
Here’s his view on what to expect from a Clinton win, still regarded as the most plausible outcome based off most major polls right now:
Such an outcome would largely support our current expectations for gold. Our bullish base case, built on expectations of a low rate environment and recovering physical demand, is a forecast of USD1,400/oz by end-2016 with an average forecast price of USD1,275/oz. For 2017, we forecast gold at USD1,440/oz by year end with an average price forecast of USD1,310/oz. If Mrs. Clinton wins, we believe her trade policies in particular and shift to protectionism would reaffirm our already bullish outlook. If contrary to current poll indications the Democrats also take control of Congress, then there could be a more expansionary fiscal policy. This could have a more bullish impact on our 2017 forecasts.
Steel’s end-2016 forecast under a Clinton victory for $US1,400 an ounce is very bullish is itself, representing an increase of 8.7% from the current spot level.
However, under a Trump victory, the degree of Steel’s bullishness goes up a notch, or perhaps two or three:
A Trump win would be decidedly gold-bullish, in our view, given the potential for increased protectionism, higher budget spending and geopolitical risks. Gold prices could jump to USD1,500/oz relatively quickly, and end the year at that level on a Trump win. This could raise our 2016 average price to USD1,300/oz. For 2017, gold could rise further to USD1,575/oz by year end with an average of USD1,410/oz.
With less than 60 days left in the year, that forecast implies massive upside of 16.5%, an enormous increase in anyone’s language.
Steel’s bullish forecasts will be put to the test before long with the outcome of the election likely to be known by this time next week.
That’s right. There’s now less than one week to go.
The spot price for gold currently sits at $US1,288 an ounce. It has rallied 21.4% so far in 2016.