NEW: Exit Poll data finally coming in. Read latest here>.
EARLIER: No Exit Polls yet, unfortunately (why the hell not?), but in the expectation that some will soon be leaked, Drudge runs a memo from the McCain Campaign explaining why Exit Polls tend to skew Democratic. (It’s not a very persuasive explanation, but it should help the McCain Campaign explain away the instantaneous blogosphere conclusion that the election is over if the Exit Polls come out as expected.)
McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
BILL McINTURFF, INTERNAL POLLSTER
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media�s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate�s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:
1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
Read the rest on Drudge >
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