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So you’ve been doing pretty well at the sports book. You’ve done your homework and you confidently step up and place your bets for week 10.Flash forward to Monday night and you are surrounded by ripped up tickets and an empty twelver. Argh! How could it go so wrong?
What do you do now and how do you prevent making even more mistakes going into week 11?
Rule #1: Take a deep breath and calm down. The last thing you need to do is start looking for a quick way to get your money back (e.g. doubling-down on a game just to win, even though you normally wouldn’t bet on it or bet a large amount of money on it). This is also called “steaming”; you see it happen at poker tables all the time. The advantage you have? You don’t have to react right away. Sit back, relax, and look toward next week.
Rule #2: Stick to your method if it is working. Look, if you have a system that has been cashing tickets leading up to your crappy week, there is no need to switch it up because it fails you one week. We see this happen all of the time. People start betting the opposite way, looking for advice from other people, changing betting increments, etc., all because of one lousy week. Stick to your process and accept that there might be a couple of down weeks, but in the end, your patience and consistency will pay off.
Rule #3: Look for statistical trends that are consistently biting you. Keep track of your bets. Are you constantly getting suckered into picking big underdogs playing on the road? Are you winning in the Pac-10 match-ups, but stinking it up with your SEC battles? Do you typically do really well with NFL picks but struggle with NCAA games? It pays to keep track of negative trends and then utilise that information to eliminate consistent losing habits.
Rule #4: Know when to make a change. If you notice that you are constantly below 50% on your picks every week, you are likely doing something wrong. This corresponds with #2 above. Don’t stick with a losing method. If you are sucking it up week after week, either stop gambling money, start looking for some major tweaks to your method or start looking for some advice elsewhere.
Rule #4A: If you start looking for advice elsewhere, make sure that their picks are documented and monitored. There are a lot of slime-balls out there looking for people that are “steaming” or want a “sure thing”. Once you verify your 3rd party, stick with it for a while before jumping ship. Patience can pay off with a couple of big weeks.
**Disclaimer, The Skulldog Show had its own deuce of a week, going 4-7 and losing its top bets of the week (in NFL and NCAA). To heal our wounds, we are flying out to Vegas on Thursday, where we will be hosting our weekly NFL/NCAA Football Handicapping show live from Lagasse’s Stadium at the Venetian. When times are tough, it’s time to head to the gambling Mecca to regroup!
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