Changes in earnings growth and the US dollar have almost not correlation

Screen Shot 2015 03 12 at 2.25.36 PMBloombergThe Dollar Index

The US dollar has been on a tear.

Early on Thursday, the dollar index (DXY), which measures it against other major currencies, hit 100 for the first time since April 2003.

And BMO Capital Markets has heard enough from the “dollar doomsayers,” particularly investors who say the strong dollar will definitely derail the bull market. They’re increasing the “noise quotient,” chief investment strategist Brian Belski wrote in a note Wednesday.

“This remains the largest stealth bull market of our collective careers, one that no one believes and everyone is OBSESSED with looking over their shoulder to diagnose its end,” he wrote. “Strengthening US dollar means that the US economy is improving, which is a reflection of an increasingly stable and fundamentally sound US stock market — PERIOD… Changes in year-over-year earnings growth and the US dollar also have almost no correlation
with each other historically.

The chart below shows that longer-term, there’s no direct relationship between the Compound Annual Growth Rate on stocks and the dollar.

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