How Much Of Successful Investment Is Down To Luck?

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Successful investing requires a lot of research to ensure the right asset is bought at the right time.

But how much of good investing is down to luck?

Two experts, Hasan Tevfik, equities strategist at Credit Suisse, and Simon Barrett, a strategy consultant at LEK Consulting, were asked this question today at the annual AVCAL (Australian Private Equity and Venture Capital Association) conference in Melbourne.

Tevfik says there is “some” luck involved.

He says it’s fairly easy to predict the outcome of a tennis tournament down to list of players because this is dependent on a high level of skills.

“Of course there is a lot of skill involved (in investing),” he says. You have to decide when to get in and out of an asset.

“So, a fair share I would say is luck rather than skill,” he says.

Simon Barrett says there’s a fair amount of skill which goes into building a business.

“People who are rigorous on the detail and focus in on it will have better luck,” he says.

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