How Is The “Recovery” Going On Main Street?

This quote from William Dunkelberg, chief economist of the NFIB, tells the real story of the state of things in our economy:

Four months into 2011, the trajectory for small-business hiring appears inconsistent and disappointing. February and March gave us some hope, but in April, the average number of net new jobs slipped from 0.17 per firm to 0.04. With fewer increases in new hires and more reports of shrinkage in workforces, we can expect the April job numbers to be a disappointment.

Drilling down into the (seasonally adjusted) numbers:

  • 8 per cent of those surveyed increased employment;
  • 15 per cent reduced employment; and,
  • 14 per cent reported unfilled job openings, down 1 point from last month.

And the outlook for future employment growth remains unchanged from March: Only 16 per cent plan to increase employment, and 6 per cent plan to reduce their workforce, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 2 per cent of owners planning to create new jobs in the next three months.

“The small-business community is still hurting.  If the unemployment rate falls, it will certainly not be a result of strong economic growth.

The only good news is that a continued recession may put a little — but only a little — damper on inflation for the short-run.