There’s a lot to unpack here, but real quick we wanted to touch on what is probably the most interesting divergence that’s happening in the economy.
On the one hand, businesses sound increasingly pessimistic. Survey-based measures of the economy (like the regional Fed indices) have not been good, and the latest NFIB Small Business Confidence index was ugly.
You can see that there’s been a decline in companies saying they expect to increase investment or hire more.
On the other ones, individuals sound increasingly optimistic.
According to Gallup, economic confidence soared in September.
And as proof of those words being put into action, car sales in September hit a new post-crisis high.
Photo: Bloomberg, Business Insider
We’re not sure which way this will break, but it is interesting.