The third working paper from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released Sunday in Berlin.
The report shows that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are accelerating despite reduction efforts and focuses on mitigation scenarios such as investing in renewable energy.
Most CO2 emission growth comes from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes:
This chart shows total anthropogenic GHG emissions by economic sectors. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) includes land-based CO2 emissions from forest fires, peat fires, and peat decay.
These land-based emissions and industry are the heavy hitters, accounting for 24% and 21% of GHG emissions, respectively:
Economic and population growth continue to be the two main drivers for increases in global greenhouse gas emissions:
Without GHG emission mitigation efforts (business-as-usual) global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7 degrees to 4.8 degrees Celsius over the 21st century:
Mitigation scenarios require major technological and institutional changes like the increasing the use of low- and zero-carbon energy sources.
In the most ambitious scenario (light-blue), it shows that if we increase low-carbon energy sources, we can stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at around 450 ppm, (the concentration now is 400 ppm). You can see that the more we invest now, the higher the payoff later.
To reduce emissions, new investment flow is needed in renewables, and nuclear power, improvements in energy efficiency, and carbon dioxide capture storage (CCS). The chart below shows the changes in annual investment that are needed from a baseline period of 2010 to 2029 if we want to stabilise concentrations of carbon dioxide within the range of 430-530 ppm by 2100.
Annual investment in fossil fuel technologies will need to decline by 20% and annual investments in low-carbon technologies should be increased by 100%.
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