One of the big stories of 2012 was the comeback of the U.S. housing market and the accompanying surge in the homebuilder stocks (see below).However, some experts now believe the homebuilder stocks may have gotten way ahead of themselves.
Bond god Jeff Gundlach recently said he is “flabbergasted” when he sees housing sector price-earnings ratios.
In a new research note, Gluskin Sheff strategist David Rosenberg shares that sentiment. But he points to another valuation metric.
“I realise that the widespread consensus is very bullish on housing,” wrote Rosenberg. “But the ratio of the builder stocks’ market cap to single-family construction spending is at an all-time high. Hence caution may be warranted.”
Here’s Rosenberg’s chart that makes housing stocks look more expensive than they did during the housing bubble.
Photo: Gluskin Sheff