Today’s Case-Shiller house-price index for September was, in a word, horrible:
- Another acceleration in the year-over-year decline rate to 18.6% (from 17.7% in August)
- A reacceleration in the month-to-month decline rate to 1.9%
- All cities down year-over-year AND month-over-month
- 10-city index now down 23% from peak
- Prices on track to decline at least 40% from peak
Not much else to say. Last month, it looked as though the year-over-year decline rate might finallly be peaking. This September, it accelerated again.
Many people are still looking for a peak-to-trough nationwide price decline of only about 30%, which would still be the worst since the Depression (by a mile). Given that price declines are already 23% and are still accelerating, we just don’t see how that’s possible.
There are some regional bright spots: Charlotte, NC, is only down 3% from the peak, Denver’s down 6%, New York’s down 11%. But many regions are already down more than 30%.
Bottom line: No sign of a bottom here.
Comp 10 Index: Y/Y Change
July 2007: -4.4%
January 2008: -11.4%
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