House Price Decline Still Accelerating, Now Down 23% Nationwide

Today’s Case-Shiller house-price index for September was, in a word, horrible:

  • Another acceleration in the year-over-year decline rate to 18.6% (from 17.7% in August)
  • A reacceleration in the month-to-month decline rate to 1.9%
  • All cities down year-over-year AND month-over-month
  • 10-city index now down 23% from peak
  • Prices on track to decline at least 40% from peak

Not much else to say.  Last month, it looked as though the year-over-year decline rate might finallly be peaking. This September, it accelerated again.

Many people are still looking for a peak-to-trough nationwide price decline of only about 30%, which would still be the worst since the Depression (by a mile). Given that price declines are already 23% and are still accelerating, we just don’t see how that’s possible.

There are some regional bright spots: Charlotte, NC, is only down 3% from the peak, Denver’s down 6%, New York’s down 11%. But many regions are already down more than 30%.

Bottom line: No sign of a bottom here.

Comp 10 Index: Y/Y Change

July 2007:    -4.4%
August:       -4.8%
September: -5.5%
October:      -6.7%
November:  -8.3%
December:  -9.8%
January 2008: -11.4%
February:      -13.5%
March:    -15.3%
April:   -16.2%
May:   -16.9%
June:  -17.0%
July:   -17.4%
August: -17.7%
September: -18.6%

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