Hong Kong Property: Bull Case Scenario Reached

The widely watched Centa-City Leading index reached another new high. 

From the end of last year to now, overall home prices have risen 11% in less than 3 months, within the range of bull case scenario I set out in my forecast for 2011 (i.e. rising 10-15%), and from the bottom in late 2008, home prices in Hong Kong have risen by 73%. 

Note that the latest data point has not reflected the impact of mortgage interest rates increase and the Japan’s earthquake, and those will be reflected in next week’s figures. 


Source: Centaline

At the present moment, I think home prices will be hovering around the current level in the coming weeks or months, and will have chance to touch 100, and  I am not revising my view upward after it has already reached my bull case scenario.  In fact, because the risk and reward balance has become unfavourable, I have called the beginning of the end of the current bull market, and I have highlighted some of the reasons why I now hold a negative view.

This article originally appeared here: Hong Kong Property: Bull Case Scenario Reached
Also sprach Analyst – World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real Estate

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