Hong Kong Property: Bull Case Scenario Reached

The widely watched Centa-City Leading index reached another new high. 

From the end of last year to now, overall home prices have risen 11% in less than 3 months, within the range of bull case scenario I set out in my forecast for 2011 (i.e. rising 10-15%), and from the bottom in late 2008, home prices in Hong Kong have risen by 73%. 

Note that the latest data point has not reflected the impact of mortgage interest rates increase and the Japan’s earthquake, and those will be reflected in next week’s figures. 

chart

Source: Centaline

At the present moment, I think home prices will be hovering around the current level in the coming weeks or months, and will have chance to touch 100, and  I am not revising my view upward after it has already reached my bull case scenario.  In fact, because the risk and reward balance has become unfavourable, I have called the beginning of the end of the current bull market, and I have highlighted some of the reasons why I now hold a negative view.

This article originally appeared here: Hong Kong Property: Bull Case Scenario Reached
Also sprach Analyst – World & China Economy, Global Finance, Real Estate

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