Holiday eCommerce Seen Soft, Little Upside Amazon / eBay

Bear Stearns analyst Bob Peck suggests that there will be little upside in U.S. sales for Amazon and eBay in Q4. Peck cites macro eCommerce commentary from Comscore, whose CEO Gian Fulgoni says that sales will only just make Comscore’s estimate of 20% year-over-year growth.

Eric Savitz at Barron’s summarizes Peck’s logic with regard to Amazon and eBay:

Peck concludes that “the overall e-commerce data points we have seen so far indicate that it could be challenging for our e-commerce companies to outperform expectations” in the fourth quarter…

Ergo, Peck notes that to reach the 30% growth he expects for Amazon’s North American business in the quarter will require 10 percentage points of outperformance versus comScore’s estimate for overall shopping growth. “As such, we think it could be difficult for Amazon to outperform our expectations,” he writes.

And eBay? More or less the same thing. He expects 17% growth, and concludes that “it might be difficult for eBay to outperform our expectations.”

Given the weakening economy, it would hardly be surprising to see soft ecommerce spending. We would caution against reading too much into this particular macro data, however, as the margin for error is high (with respect to forecasting individual company results) and both eBay and Amazon have large international businesses.

On the positive side for Amazon shareholders, Comscore CEO says Amazon is stealing share from eBay (no surprise).

See Also:
eBay: Time for CEO Meg Whitman To Go
Cyber Monday Sales: Exactly As Expected

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