History Says The ASX Should Rally After The Abbott Victory

Picture: Getty Images

Interesting piece from ASXiQ this morning which has the odds for market performance on one day, one week, one month and one year timeframes.

The short term looks a bit random with 50:50 results, but the longer term data is interesting for Liberal victories.

All Ords Trading odds for Longs in the first month, post elections, if Liberals won the elections

Winners : 3
Losers : 1
% Winners : 75%
Average Change % : 2.30
Median Change % : 3.41
Maximum Gain % : 5.83
Maximum Loss % : -3.44
Average Gain %if Winner : 4.22
Average Loss % if Loser : -3.44
Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.23

All Ords Trading odds for Longs in the first year, post elections, if Liberals won the elections

Winners : 3
Losers : 1
% Winners : 75%
Average Change % : 7.50
Median Change % : 9.51
Maximum Gain % : 19.80 ( 11-Oct-04 to 11-Oct-05)
Maximum Loss % : -8.82 ( 12-Nov-01 to 12-Nov-02)
Average Gain %if Winner : 12.94
Average Loss % if Loser : -8.82
Average Gain % / Average Loss % : 1.47
Average Absolute Change% : 11.91

One-year results summarised in the table below.

Follow Greg McKenna on Twitter

Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook and Twitter

Business Insider Emails & Alerts

Site highlights each day to your inbox.

Follow Business Insider Australia on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram.