North Korea is
threatening Seoul again, this time over a jointly controlled factory.The Democratic People’s Republic also says it is restarting its nuclear reactor, five years after shutting it down.
But a survey of 50 years of North Korean bellicosity shows nothing major is likely to happen.
We went back and pulled all the major headlines created by North Korean bluster against the South since the end of the Korean War.
As you’ll say, there are exactly zero violent outbreaks of any consequence.
In some ways we shouldn’t be surprised by all the threats: the conflict never officially ended. Instead, an armistice was signed when the U.N. withdrew troops in 1953.
And there is a new dimension this time around i n the form of the North’s brand-new leader, Kim Jong-un
But after five decades, it seems safe to say that we’ll get through this one — and the next — in one piece.
Hostilities had ended by 1954. But just four years later it seemed like there'd barely been any progress.
Kim Il Sung, who ran the country during this time, can be credited with starting the trend of periodic bluster, which was mostly came from frustration over American forces' ongoing presence in the South. He ended up ruling until his death in 1994.
But for decades South Koreans struggled under their own quasi-autocratic regime. Park Chung-hee, who ran the country from 1961 to 1979, often used Northern threats as a pretext to assert his own control.
A quarter of a century after the armistice, nothing had changed. Often the North's pretexts for saber rattling were totally regular events like the U.S. presidential election.
This story is insane. Captain Arthur Bonifas and Lt. Mark Barrett were hacked to death by North Korean soldiers after refusing to stop pruning a poplar tree in the demilitarized zone separating the two countries. It sparked an international incident that lasted over a year and by one account led Sec. of State Henry Kissinger to order up full scale bombing plans.
Eventually the U.S. decided it was better to maybe leave the peninsula entirely. But no sooner would they announce they were contemplating doing so than the North would threaten invasion. Thus, U.S. forces remain.
The late '70s were probably the most turbulent time for the Peninsula since the war. On Friday, Oct. 26, 1979, Park was assassinated by his own security forces. The South preempted the inevitable by telling Pyongyang to lay off.
Things were mostly quiet during the '80s, until the Seoul Olympics. Again, the North took an otherwise totally predictable occasion to threaten to blow everyone up in the South.
Until they went nuclear, the only threat the North could credibly back up was in sports. Here's the headline in advance of the 1990 Asian Games in Beijing. Pyongyang won 12 gold medals that year.
By the mid-90s, the North was struggling to figure out how to step up their game — their threats had become tiresome.
Here's the lede on this story:
'Weaving his white cab through the streets of downtown Seoul, Kim Chang-won sniffs at North Korea's weekend threat to engulf his city in 'a sea of fire.' 'Sheer bluff, that's what it is,' said the 54-year-old driver.'
But it wasn't for lack of trying, and occasionally it worked. Exit polls in the 1996 parliamentary election showed a North announcement that it would no longer recognise the '53 armistice had influenced a sizable portion of voters.
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