The S&P 500 is up 116 per cent since it hit its low on March 9, 2009.
Many market sceptics point to this huge run-up as a reason to be worried.
From BMO Capital Markets’ Brian Belski:
Putting This Cycle Into Historical Context
Despite prices more than doubling since its March 2009 low, S&P 500 performance cycle-todate has actually lagged other cycles, on average, since 1970. For instance, our analysis shows that the S&P 500 is typically 14% higher than its prior price peak at this stage of an average bull cycle (i.e., 43 months since a price trough). However, the current market trajectory remains about 7% below the October 2007 peak for the S&P 500. As such, the current cycle ranks ahead of only the 1973-1974 and 2000-2002 cycles where it took roughly five years for a full S&P 500 price recovery. Therefore, the market appears to have plenty of room to move higher over the next year or so based on historical evidence, in our view.
Photo: BMO Capital Markets