So Far, This Has Been One Of The Most Unimpressive Bull Markets Ever

The S&P 500 is up 116 per cent since it hit its low on March 9, 2009.

Many market sceptics point to this huge run-up as a reason to be worried.

However, it’s worth noting that this isn’t the fastest rebound we’ve ever seen.  In fact, 43 months in, the current bull market’s return is below average.

From BMO Capital Markets’ Brian Belski:

Putting This Cycle Into Historical Context
Despite prices more than doubling since its March 2009 low, S&P 500 performance cycle-todate has actually lagged other cycles, on average, since 1970. For instance, our analysis shows that the S&P 500 is typically 14% higher than its prior price peak at this stage of an average bull cycle (i.e., 43 months since a price trough). However, the current market trajectory remains about 7% below the October 2007 peak for the S&P 500. As such, the current cycle ranks ahead of only the 1973-1974 and 2000-2002 cycles where it took roughly five years for a full S&P 500 price recovery. Therefore, the market appears to have plenty of room to move higher over the next year or so based on historical evidence, in our view.


Photo: BMO Capital Markets

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