Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning the presidency hovered around 80% on British betting market Betfair on the day before the election, staying at the same level they were a couple of days ago, when Clinton was officially cleared by the FBI after the agency examined new emails recovered from her private server.
Donald Trump was trading at about a 19% chance on Betfair.
However, as of Tuesday morning, Clinton’s chances slipped slightly, down from 80% to 78%, while Trump’s chances rose to 21%.
As of Tuesday, approximately $145 million has been traded on Betfair toward the outcome of the presidential election. It’s likely the amount traded by the end of the day will be over $190 million, surpassing the $159 million traded during the Brexit vote in June, said Barry Orr, a spokesperson for Betfair.
Clinton’s odds are slightly higher on PredictWise, another betting exchange, where she’s favoured to win at 88%, while Trump’s chances are around 12%.
Clinton’s chances on betting markets mirror polling data, which point toward a victory for the Democratic nominee.
RealClearPolitics’ average of polls taken between November 2 and November 7 have Clinton up by 3.3 points in national surveys of a four-way race that includes Green Party nominee Jill Stein and Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson.
Meanwhile, statistician Nate Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight, estimated Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency being at 71.4%, while Trump has a 28.6% chance.
Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency rose significantly after a slew of events in October that looked like they would derail Trump’s chances of getting to the White House — the release of a lewd tape, the resulting barrage of criticism from members of the GOP, and three lacklustre debate performances.
However, he was handed a boon when the FBI sent a letter to Congress announcing that it was investigating newly uncovered emails that were found during an unrelated probe into Anthony Weiner’s sexual mishaps.
Clinton’s polling numbers did drop slightly after Comey’s letter to Congress, but spiked again over the final few days of the campaign.
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